Monday, June 25, 2012

RFC Summer Semester--Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) Preview (FCS)--(REVISED)

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2011 Final Standings

Looking back: Towson not only took home its first-ever Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) title in 2011, it also became the first team in NCAA history to advance to the playoffs in three separate divisions (Division III runners-up in 1976, Division II in 1983, 1984, and 1986, and the FCS in 2011).  The Tigers joined four other teams (Old Dominion, Maine, New Hampshire, and James Madison) in advancing to the FCS playoffs last season.  A sixth team, Delaware, was left out of the FCS field despite a 7-4 overall record. Only the Black Bears were able to advance as far as the quarterfinals, with their season ending in a 35-23 loss to Georgia Southern.

Looking ahead: It has already lost Massachusetts to the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivsion (FBS) ranks for 2012.  Now, the CAA will lose two more programs, Georgia State and Old Dominion, to the Sun Belt Conference and Conference USA, respectively, by 2013.  Other programs, in the CAA as well as other conferences, may follow suit beyond the 2013 season. Those moves alone leave the CAA's future in limbo.  Still, the league will operate with 11 teams in 2012.

Update (as of June 25, 2012): Because of CAA by-laws, neither Georgia State nor Old Dominion will be eligible for the FCS playoffs this season.  Therefore, here are the revised predicttions for the conference below.



2012 Predicted Order of Finish (2011 overall record in parentheses)

1. Towson (9-3):  The Tigers finished 7-1 in conference play to win their first-ever CAA championship, and earn a first round bye in the process.  But their postseason run was cut short by Lehigh in a 40-38 loss.  It came after the program had just one win in 2010.  Now the challenge for head coach Rob Ambrose and his charges is to continue to build on last season's run.  The 2012 schedule includes visits to FBS Kent State and LSU.


2. Maine (9-4):  The Black Bears had a season to remember in 2011, advancing to the quarterfinals before losing to Georgia Southern.  With 14 starters returning, seven on both sides of the football, expect them to be in both the CAA title and FCS playoff discussion for 2012.


3. Delaware (7-4):  The Blue Hens started 4-4, only to win three straight games to finish 5-3 in CAA action last season.  If they're to make the playoffs this season, they must overcome the loss of seven starters on offense.


4. New Hampshire (8-4):  Head Coach Sean McDonnell enters his 14th season at the Wildcats helm, needing just four wins to earn his 100th career coaching win. He'll also try to put UNH in the FCS playoffs for the ninth year in a row.  The highlight of the 2012 schedule includes a September 8 visit to Minnesota of the FBS (BCS) Big 10 Conference.


5. James Madison (8-5):  Like McDonnell, Mickey Matthews will go into his 14th season leading the Dukes onto the field.  Like his counterpart at New Hampshire, Matthews is just four wins away from his 100th career victory.   JMU advanced to the second round of the FCS playoffs before being eliminated by eventual national champion North Dakota State, 26-14.  If they're to make an even deeper postseason run in 2012, the Dukes must replace six starters on defense.

6. William & Mary (5-6):  After making back-to-back FCS playoff appearances the last two years, the Tribe slumped to a 3-5 finish in CAA action last season.  Moving up in the standings may be prove to be a challenge for head coach Jimmye Laycock, who enters his 33rd season as the winningest head coach in W&M history, having compiled a career record of 213-151-2.  The 2012 slate includes back-to-back late season visits to New Hampshire and Old Dominion.

7. Rhode Island (3-8):  As if losing programs to the FBS wasn't bad enough, the CAA will lose another, the Rams, to the Northeast Conference at the end of the upcoming 2012 season.  While head coach Joe Trainer welcomes back nine starters from last season, he also must replace 13 of them.  URI hasn't had a winning season since 1995, or have been to the playoffs since 1985.


8. Villanova (2-9):  It seems as if the national championship season of 2009 is a distant memory for the Wildcats faithful, as the team finished CAA play a dismal 1-7 in 2011.


9. Richmond (3-8):  The team that won it all in 2008 also hit rock bottom in 2011, as the Spiders lost eight straight games, all in CAA action, after a promising 3-0 start, as well as a national ranking as high as No. 5.  

Not eligible for CAA title/FCS playoffs


Old Dominion (10-3):  The Monarchs made history in just their third season of football, as they made their first-ever FCS playoff appearance.  They advanced to the second round before being eliminated by Georgia Southern, 55-48.  Now, as they prepare to play in their final FCS season this fall, the Monarchs hope to go out with another winning season.  With eight offensive and seven defensive starters coming back, they just might have the team to get the job done this year




Georgia State (3-8):  The Panthers first season in the CAA, sadly, will be the last, as they begin the transition to the FBS Sun Belt Conference in 2013.

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